However, with wheat prices still strong, farmers maintain an incentive to sow the crop even with a potential yield penalty for missing the ideal window, Strategie Grains said.

‘It is not disastrous’

“People are talking about a problem because we have become used to good sowing conditions, but it is not disastrous,” Strategie Grains’ Laurine Simon told Reuters.

“The gross margins for wheat are decent so that will encourage farmers to sow wheat.”

The group, in its first estimate for the 2013 crop, pegged it at 136m tonnes, up 13m tonnes on this year’s result.

However, the harvest could reach 142m tonnes if yields reached the strong levels of 2008.

The worst case scenario currently being considered was a 121m-tone harvest, factoring in a yield on a par with 2007′s weak result.

Wheat vs rapeseed

The Paris-based group, which last month estimated Europe’s soft wheat area for the 2013 harvest rising by 2.5%, said that seedings prospects had received support from setbacks to oilseed sowings, besides high prices.

The forecast for oilseed area was trimmed by 200,000 hectares to 11.6m hectares, reflecting the inability of growers in countries to plant all their rapeseed, which is an earlier-sown crop than wheat.

Late wheat harvests in areas such as northern France and the UK are believed to have disrupted rapeseed plantings, by eating well into the seeding window.

Oil World last week estimated EU sowings of rapeseed, the bloc’s major oilseed, at 6.55m hectares for the 2013 harvest, up from 6.13m hectares last time.

On Tuesday, the German oilseeds association, Ufop, estimated a sharp revival in the country’s rapeseed area after weather-hit planting seasons in 2011 and 2010.

Source : agrimoney.com

Cet article 2013 wheat crop est apparu en premier sur WATERFOOD.

The poor quantity, and quality, of the UK wheat crop, coupled with demand spurred by the opening of bioethanol capacity, could see imports “rise as far as 2.5m tonnes, or higher”, Jonathan Lane, trading manager at merchant Gleadell said.

“Import amounts continue to rise as millers turn to imports to blend or replace UK supplies,” he said, adding that imports of 2.5m tonnes would be “a figure not seen for many years”, besides one which has constrained milling premiums despite the weak harvest.

It would also appear likely make the UK, unusually, a net wheat importer. UK wheat imports in 2011-12 came in at 867,000 tonnes, well below exports of 2.39m tonnes, customs data show.

‘Mills have been struggling’

The idea of significant imports was also flagged by UK grain traders at a major European commodities house, who highlighted talk over the trouble that mills were having generating flour from a poor quality domestic crop.

While lowering to 70 kilogrammes per hectolitre, from 76 kilogrammes per hectolitre, their hurdle rate for specific weight – a key quality metric – they will take for top grade wheat, mills “have been struggling” with the grain.

They have reportedly been “running flat out for 24 hours a day but still are unable to produce enough flour for their customers due to the very poor extraction rates”, the traders said.

With German milling wheat “available delivered into the northern mills at about the same price as full spec Group 1s, and with consistent quality and specific weights well over 76 kilogrammes per hectolitre, It’s no surprise that millers are turning to this better material”.

Imports from the US?

For Group 3 milling wheat, used in making biscuits, the dearth of supplies may even force millers to turn to US supplies, they said, echoing comments made by US broker Benson Quinn Commodities last month.

“The only alternative is US soft red winter wheat,” the type traded in Chicago, which is “less than £20 tonne above our Group 3 prices delivered into the northern mills”, the traders said.

“Again, with its better quality it may already be a viable option and we have to remember that once the decision is taken, it turns up in cargoes of 25,000 or 50,000 tonnes.”

‘High levels of disease’

The comments came as Defra, the UK farm ministry, in its first estimates for the 2012 harvests warned that “yields for all [major] crops have fallen between 2011 and 2012, with wheat and oilseed rape showing the greatest drops”, after the wettest summer in a century.

In wheat, “yields have been affected by the poor weather, which led to high levels of disease during spring and summer along with low sunlight levels during the grainfill period”.

The wheat yield of 6.7 tonnes per hectare was the “lowest it has been during the last 20 years”, with the harvest pegged at 13.3m tonnes, a 13% decline year on year.

The production figure is in line with a 13.25m-tonne estimate last week from the National Farmers Union, with Strategie Grains on Friday putting the crop at 13.4m tonnes, and the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday putting the crop at 14.0m tonnes.

Cet article UK to see big wheat import as weak crop confirmed est apparu en premier sur WATERFOOD.

In Russia, “soil moisture levels still remain low in some key growing southern areas,” whose drought this year has been a major factor in curtailing exports from a country which typically provides a source of ample competitively-priced grain.

Indeed, the weak exportable surplus of wheat in the former Soviet Union has “strengthened domestic prices of main staple wheat flour in importing countries”, contributing to a gain in world food prices last month.

‘Progressing well’

However, overall Russian sowings of winter wheat, which accounts for some two-thirds of the country’s wheat production, are “progressing well under generally satisfactory weather conditions”, the FAO said, flagging forecast of winter grains area remaining stable at about 16.8m hectares.

In neighbouring Ukraine, “planting got off to an early start, favoured by beneficial rains during [late] August in the majority of grain-producing regions”, the exception being some “key” southern areas, where soil moisture levels remain low.

Winter grain sowings are expected at an “average” level of 8.1m hectares.

In the US, the arrival of “much-needed” rains last month had improved soil conditions, the FAO said, flagging US Department of Agriculture data showing only a small lag in planting progress behind typical levels.

And in the European Union, the world’s biggest wheat producer, planting conditions “are generally favourable”.

‘Attractive option’

The decent conditions boded well for sowings at a time when elevated prices were giving growers a firm incentive to plant wheat, the FAO said.

“Wheat remains an attractive option for producers. Thus, weather permitting, [world] plantings are expected to at least match those of last year.

“This alone could result in a significant increase in next year’s global wheat output, assuming growing conditions return to normal in areas affected by drought in 2012, and satisfactory growing conditions in the other key producing countries.

“Very early indications for wheat crops in 2013 are encouraging,” after a 2012 harvest which the organisation pegged at 663m tonnes, a 5.2% drop year on year.

Area increase?

The comments follow a forecast last week by the International Grains Council that wheat harvested area for next season’s harvests would increase by 2.0% to 223.2m hectares.

“Winter wheat planting for 2013-14 is well underway in the northern hemisphere, and farmers are expected to increase sowings, driven by both firm prices and a recovery from the adverse weather conditions the previous year, notably in the former Soviet Union,” the council said.

Indeed, the IGC forecast a rise in sowings in Russia and Ukraine, as well as in Argentina, where plantings for 2012-13 fell to a multi-decade low as farmers switched to barley, for which the country’s export restrictions are not as severe, so opening up the potential for better returns.

‘Welcome rains’

Separately, Agritel on Thursday flagged improved sowing conditions in France, the EU’s top wheat producer, after an unfavourably dry period during the seeding window for rapeseed, which is planted earlier.

“The current rains in the northern part of France are warmly welcomed, with the beginning of winter wheat seeding,” the Paris-based consultancy said.

“These rains will partially offset the lack of rainfall observed for rapeseed sowing.”

In Russia, farm operator Ros Agro said on Wednesday it had completed sowing nearly 100,000 hectares of winter wheat.

SOURCE : Agrimoney.com

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