EnglishMounting concerns over dryness raised doubts over a forecast by US officials that Ukraine’s wheat harvest will rebound by 40% this year, underpinning 69% growth in exports.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Kiev bureau forecast that the Ukraine wheat harvest will hit 22.6m tonnes this year, up from 15.8m tonnes last year, and making it the third highest out of the last 20 years.
“Winter wheat plantings were almost unaffected by winterkill and thus overall wheat area could be almost 20% higher than in the previous season,” the bureau said.
The recovery will allow exports “to increase up to 11.0m tonnes as a result of an expected good harvest and generous supply”.
‘Increase stress’
However, the forecast contrasts with lower, and decreasing, harvest estimates from within Ukraine itself, where dryness is causing increasing concerns over both winter crops and the planting of spring crops such as barley and corn.
As of April 23, Ukraine farmers had sown 3.3m hectares of spring grains, down from 6.0m hectares a year before, according to farm ministry data.
MDA warned of a further period without rain for especially eastern Ukraine, as well as south western areas of Russia, a major export area.
The six-to-10 day outlook shows that “dryness will build further in eastern Ukraine and the western North Caucasus”, the weather service said.
“This will increase stress on winter wheat.”
‘Growing concerns’
At broker FCStone, Jaime Nolan Miralles urged “caution” over trading on the USDA bureau estimates, flagging “growing concerns” over the lack of rainfall in Ukraine and southern Russia.
“Southern Ukraine in particular is lacking in moisture and temperatures are slowly pushing higher,” he said.
“Additional rains will be required, if we are not to see a downward revision to these estimates on final yield reductions.”
UkrAgroConsult, the analysis group, forecasts Ukraine reaping a 20.23m-tonne wheat harvest, with rival ProAgro putting the figure at 19.89m tonnes.
Seed boost
However, the USDA bureau’s forecast of a 22.0m-tonne corn crop in Ukraine, a rise of a little over 1m tonnes year on year, was more in line with market expectations.
UkrAgroConsult sees the corn harvest at 21.8m tonnes, and ProAgro at 21.4m tonnes.
The bureau said: “The area under corn would decline slightly as there is no need to replant large winter losses of other grains with corn as happened last year.
“However, corn yields are expected to be better.
“Ukrainian corn producers have been exploring the benefits of imported high quality hybrid corn seeds and are becoming more knowledgeable about corn seed choices.”
Ukraine corn exports – on which buyers from the Middle East and North Africa are increasingly relying, and which have reportedly gained entry to the Chinese market too – were pegged at 14.0m tonnes, a rise of 12.9% year on year.
MAY
